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November 2 0 2 1 | V O L . 2
W R I T T E N BY B I L L H U B B A R D O W N E R | B R O K E R
This month the overall message is positive, with a little bit of caution peeking through the door. The market is cruising along just as we predicted. Perhaps a little better than we predicted. The absorption (percentage of total residential inventory that sells on a monthly basis) in both the North Okanagan and the Central Okanagan is staying strong at slightly above 50% in October. The Shuswap is staying strong at slightly above 40%. Usually, there is downward pressure on absorption as the market slows for the winter this time of year. Looking back on previous years, the absorption tends to start dropping in September and continues until spring. That has not happened yet. Again, to be redundant, the absorption has to get below 20% before the upward pressure on prices levels off. Statistically, absorption has to get below 12% before you see prices trending downward. Prices still show strong upward pressure. Year-to-date prices for residential properties are up 20+% in all three zones (Central Okanagan, North Okanagan and Shuswap) compared to last year’s same time frame. Keep in mind this is residential properties only.
If you recalled last month, I referred to the expected slow down and decrease in absorption simply because of the winter months. However, in November, the absorption rate in all three zones, the North Okanagan, the Central Okanagan, and the Shuswap, is rising.
In the Shuswap, 58% of the residential inventory was sold in November, up 42% in October. In the Central Okanagan, 71% of the residential inventory was sold in November, up from 54% in October. In the North Okanagan, a whopping 86% of the residential inventory was sold in November, up from 50% in October.
Not only that, the inventory went down more in all three zones. What does this mean? As bizarre as it may sound, the demand for Real Estate in the Okanagan Shuswap, which is already higher than ever in recorded history, is now starting to increase again. Prices are going to continue to rise. The fact that we all live in paradise is no longer a secret. In my opinion, over the next few months, it has to soften a bit because winter is here. It softens every year at this time. However, as we get closer and closer to 2022, it is setting itself up for a very hot spring in the Okanagan Shuswap Real estate Market.
Alas, as always, that is just the world, according to Bill.
